Top Hitters

Hitters ranked by their 2011 Total Production based on our scoring algorithm. The 2011 scores are then applied to our 2012 performance markers of skill progression, team value and risk profile, to generate 2012 Rankings. The far right column, OPG, is the offensive production/game a player generates. We reduce all of this to a single number score.. and then multiply by the number of games played.(GP)

For example, Albert Pujols may be reaching the point in his career when his performance will begin to decline qualitatively. But given his history and the DH potential with the Angels.. he should play in more games in 2012.. a 5% GP boost that will over ride any minute qualitative decline from last season.

These ratings are intended to give some shape and perspective to the player pool. That a player is ranked here, does not mean he makes our Draft Guide list. In fact, there are no less than 15 players here that we would not pick in the first two rounds. Picking players based on last year's stats will make you a perennial loser against teams consistently using scoring algorithms.

2011 Top 25
Total Production Position Players

Excludes Catchers and DH. See 2012 table below.

2011 Rank	Player Name	Team	Position	GP	Total Production	OP/G 2011
1	Matt Kemp	LAD	CF	161	544.27	3.38
2	Jacob Ellsbury	Bos	CF	158	517.82	3.28
3	Ryan Braun	Mil	LF	150	513.90	3.43
4	Miguel Cabrera	Det	1B	161	509.27	3.16
5	Adrian Gonzalez	Bos	1B	159	493.81	3.11
6	Curtis Granderson	NYY	CF	156	467.16	2.99
7	Jose Bautista	Tor	RF/3B	149	465.70	3.13
8	Prince Fielder	***	1B	162	452.24	2.79
9	Joey Votto	Cin	1B	161	444.14	2.76
10	Robinson Cano	NYY	2B	159	440.12	2.77
11	Justin Upton	Ari	RF	159	413.08	2.60
12	Albert Pujols	LAA	1B	147	409.51	2.79
13	Dustin Perdoia	Bos	2B	159	408.98	2.57
14	Alex Gordon	KC	LF	151	406.10	2.70
15	Troy Tulowitzki	Col	SS	143	389.30	2.72
16	Hunter Pence	Phi	RF	154	386.72	2.51
17	Ian Kinsler	Tex	2B	155	381.06	2.46
18	Lance Berkman	STL	1B/RF	145	373.05	2.57
19	Jose Reyes	Miami	SS	126	366.59	2.91
20	Carlos Gonzales	Col	OF	127	357.38	2.81
21	Mark Texiera	NYY	1B	156	348.20	2.23
22	Adrian Beltre	Tex	3B	124	345.20	2.78
23	Josh Hamilton	Tex	LF/CF	121	342.22	2.83
24	Mike Stanton	Miami	RF	150	334.88	2.23
25	Evan Longoria	TB	1B	133	302.60	2.28

2012 Top 25 Projections

All players projected at 154 games played. (GP) Average # of games played by the Top 25 players. As we are all too painfully aware, some of these guys won't make 154 games. Some of them never do.. but they will start the season on level ground. When doing projections, popular Mike Stanton crept into the discussion.. and Hanley Ramirez? For Mr. Me First, his projection is based on a 3 year average.

Rank 2012	Player	Team	Pos	2012 Projection	OP/G
1	Matt Kemp	LAD	CF	536.23	3.48
2	Jacob Ellsbury	Bos	CF	535.45	3.48
3	Miguel Cabrera	Det	1B	516.60	3.35
4	Adrian Gonzalez	Bos	1B	512.34	3.33
5	Jose Bautista	Tor	RF/3B	500.62	3.25
6	Curtis Granderson	NYY	CF	494.01	3.21
7	Josh Hamilton	Tex	LF/CF	471.31	3.06
8	Carlos Gonzales	Col	OF	468.77	3.04
9	Jose Reyes	Miami	SS	466.15	3.03
10	Troy Tulowitzki	Col	SS	457.99	2.97
11	Joey Votto	Cin	1B	450.67	2.93
12	Adrian Beltre	Tex	3B	450.41	2.92
13	Prince Fielder	***	1B	447.28	2.90
14	Albert Pujols	LAA	1B	446.34	2.90
15	Robinson Cano	NYY	2B	443.50	2.88
16	Alex Gordon	KC	LF	439.22	2.85
17	Justin Upton	AZ	RF	436.67	2.84
18	*H. Ramirez - 3 Yr	Miami	SS/3B	413.70	2.69
19	Dustin Pedroia	Bos	2B	404.04	2.62
20	Carlos Beltran	STL	OF	399.49	2.59
21	Ian Kinsler	Tex	2B	397.75	2.58
22	Ryan Braun	Mil	LF	396.28	2.57
23	Evan Longoria	TB	1B	394.02	2.56
24	Lance Berkman	STL	1B/RF	392.01	2.55
25	Hunter Pence	PHI	1B/3B	388.32	2.52
26	Mike Stanton	Miami	RF	379.26	2.46
27	Mark Texiera	NYY	1B	354.04	2.30

To complete the discussion on Top Hitters.. the top Catchers and DH are rated here. We rank C & DH on per game basis.. *OP/Game. The question is: How many games will they play.. and how beat up are they from catching? Only three or four of these guys warrant a pick above the 5th round. So we avoid pure catchers early based on value/risk. If Jesus Montero or Mike Napoli get 480 ABs.. they may be a great pick by comparison to other catchers. I'm looking for better value and much less risk with a top pick. The pure DH limits your line-up flexibility.. so very few DHs provide an exceptional player value from that point of view. Michael Young will never again produce like he did in 2012. He got 631 ABs in 159 games. He's 35 now.. still a good hitter.. but with power diminishing.. and just too high in the rankings.

2011 Catcher/DH Production

Rank	Name	Team	Position	GP	Production	*OP/G
1	Mike Napoli	Tex	C/DH	113	338.58	3.00
2	D. Ortiz	Bos	DH/1B	145	393.59	2.71
3	Jesus Montero	SEA	C/DH	18	48.80	2.71
4	Michael Young	Tex	DH/1B	159	401.38	2.52
5	Victor Martinez	Det	C/DH/1B	145	350.20	2.42
6	S. Perez	KC	C	39	85.90	2.20
7	Alex Avila	Det	C	141	305.20	2.16
8	Miguel Montero	Ari	C	140	283.72	2.03
9	Carlos Santana	Cle	C/DH/1B	155	294.11	1.90
10	McCann	ATL	C	128	240.20	1.88

 2012 Projections for Top 12 Catchers

You know the territory. High injury risk can easily take a catcher out of the line up twice in one season. The C/DH combo provides some relief.. but adds wear and tear on player catching 5 times per week. It's a tough job.  Arencibia produces HRs, but could lose playing time if he can't cut down on Ks..  raise his average 20-30 points. Notice we go back to Total Production rank vs. O/PG. We need production all season.

Player	Team	Pos	GP	2012 Points	2012 O/PG
Mike Napoli	Tex	C	135	400	2.97
Joe Mauer**	Minn	C	135	389	2.53
VictorMartinez	Det	C	140	336	2.40
Alex Avila	Det	C	140	312	2.23
Jesus Montero*	ARI	C	135	308	2.28
Miguel Montero	SEA	C	140	295	2.21
Buster Posey	SF	C	135	288	2.31
Carlos Santana	Cle	C	145	281	1.98
Brian McCann	ATL	C	140	277	1.98
Yadier Molina	STL	C	140	257	1.84
Matt Weiters	Bal	C	140	250	1.78
W. Ramos	Wash	C	140	249	1.78
J. Arencibia	Tor	C	140	209	1.55

Notes: Mauer's projection based on 2009/2010 performance.
Jesus Montero projection based on AAA/NYY hybrid.